Forecasting remains an important tool that guides the planning and decisions of many public and private institutions, despite the challenges of accurate forecasting and the mixed track record of economists. Dr. McNown shared his thoughts on characteristics of forecast methodologies, such as accuracy, transparency, and uncertainty, with attention to problems of forecasting when confronted with massive economic shocks such as the Great Recession and the current pandemic.
Robert McNown is Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Colorado, Boulder. He received his PhD in Economics from UC San Diego. He has held visiting faculty positions in various countries including Nepal (as a Fulbright Lecturer), China, Australia, and Vietnam (again as a Fulbright Scholar).
Through his consulting company, JTC Econometrics, LLC, he collaborates with researchers in the Business Research Division of the Leeds School of Business at CU Boulder. These projects involve the construction of macro-econometric time series models for forecasting key indicators of national and Colorado economies in order to project tax revenues of various state and local governmental agencies. Dr. McNown also presents intensive courses in time series econometrics for the National Association of Business Economists and the International Monetary Fund.
You can view the presentation online here: https://youtu.be/r3bMTy4DRSU
See attached slides for a copy of Dr. McNown's presentation.